81% housing price spike in Spain may drive fertility down
New research links higher local property costs to a 3% drop in birth rates among young women, suggesting public housing could be a key policy lever.
By Noor Graham ·
A new analysis links soaring housing costs to lower birth rates in Spain.
Spain currently has a fertility rate of 1.1, far below the 2.1 needed to maintain its population. Between 2015 and 2025, housing prices in the country rose by 81%. This financial pressure has delayed family formation. The average age at which Spaniards leave their parental home is now 30.2 years. By comparison, that average is 23.8 years in France and 24.1 years in Germany. An article from the Elcano Royal Institute proposes that increasing public housing supply could incentivize partners to start families earlier.
Recent academic work supports this connection. A paper published a few weeks ago found that a 10% rise in local housing prices lowers birth rates by approximately 3% for women aged 20 to 34. The authors of that study calculated that higher housing prices account for roughly half of the implied fertility rate decline between 2014 and 2022. Planet Money co-host Jeff Guo noted that the evidence for this argument appears stronger outside the United States. Immigration has kept the Spanish population from dropping dramatically since 2000, but the housing link offers a distinct policy solution to childbearing trends.
The Elcano Institute article suggests that public housing expansion is a viable strategy to address these demographic shifts. While no single factor determines fertility, the direct correlation between property costs and birth rates provides a clear target for policymakers. The data indicates that when housing becomes more affordable, young adults in Spain are more likely to form families. This stands in contrast to the current trend where high costs keep young adults in the parental home for longer periods.
Spain faces a dual challenge of maintaining its population and managing economic growth. With the current rate at 1.1, every 100 women birth an average of 110 children. To reverse this trend, the country would need to reach 2.1. The proposed solution focuses on the supply side of the housing market rather than direct financial incentives for children. By reducing the cost barrier to independence, the state aims to accelerate the timeline for starting families.
