Yamal holds 23 percent AI edge over Kane and Mbappe for Ballon d'Or
Avisia data ranks the Barcelona winger first, while bookmakers favor Harry Kane with a 70 percent probability as the London ceremony approaches.
By Rebecca Svoboda ·
Lamine Yamal is the leading candidate for the 2026 Ballon d'Or according to artificial intelligence models, with a 23 percent probability of winning the award.
The Barcelona winger ranks above Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe in data released by Avisia, a French analysis firm. Kane follows with a 21 percent chance, while Mbappe holds a 19 percent likelihood. Rodri, the 2024 winner, is also tied with Mbappe at 19 percent, and Lionel Messi completes the top five with an 18 percent chance.
Avisia stated that its model correctly identified the top five contenders for the 2025 Ballon d'Or, which Ousmane Dembele won. Despite the AI prediction favoring Yamal, betting markets tell a different story. Bookmakers currently view Kane as the outright favorite, assigning him a 70 percent probability of victory.
The selection process weighs individual statistics against team success. Mbappe leads La Liga with 25 goals and tops the Champions League with 15. He also won the World Cup Golden Boot and set the record for most World Cup goals with 12. Kane scored 73 goals during the season, a total not surpassed by any player since Lionel Messi netted 82 in 2011-12.
Neither Mbappe nor Kane secured a major trophy with their club or country. Mbappe did not win a title with Real Madrid or France, while Kane won the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich but finished third with England at the World Cup. Yamal, however, won the World Cup with Spain and the La Liga title with Barcelona. His individual numbers were affected by injury, but his team success aligns with recent historical trends.
Only four of the last 19 Ballon d'Or winners failed to capture the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship, or Copa America in the year of their award. This pattern favors Yamal, who is 19 years old. If he wins, he will become the youngest recipient in the award's history, surpassing Brazilian Ronaldo, who was 21 when he won in 1997.
Players have offered mixed opinions on the race. Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone and former Italy international Marco Materazzi support Messi, citing his performance at age 38. Jude Bellingham backed Kane, describing him as honest and hard-working. Anthony Gordon praised Yamal's development at a young age, while Real Madrid teammate Aurelien Tchouameni highlighted Mbappe's incredible season.
Source: Al Jazeera
