UK Aid Spending Falls Short of 2027 Target by £400 Million

The United Kingdom is projected to miss its 2027 target for international aid spending by an estimated £400 million. The Center for Global Development, or CGD, released new calculations showing that UK aid will likely reach only 0.29% of national income next year. This falls below the 0.3% threshold set by the government.

The CGD analysis identifies inflation as a primary driver of the shortfall. Higher than expected inflation increases national income, which raises the absolute amount of money required to hit the percentage target. The researchers also cite a 2025 policy change that affected the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office budget. Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CGD, described these figures as material shortfalls in the spending power of UK aid.

Mitchell noted that closing a £400 million gap would halve the planned cuts to Africa. He warned that these cuts are likely to cost thousands of lives and amount to a de facto UK exit from the south and east of the continent. The CGD estimates the shortfall could reach £580 million in a plausible scenario. Even the most conservative forecast points to a gap of £250 million.

The 2027 goal is substantially lower than the 0.7% target promised in Labour’s election manifesto. Prime Minister Keir Starmer lowered the target to free up funds for defence spending. Fleur Anderson, a former minister on the foreign affairs select committee, stated that the government should at least hit the reduced target. She described missing the goal as more than an abstract accounting issue, citing communities without clean water, girls leaving school, and undelivered vaccines.

Charities have warned that deep aid cuts will damage children's education and increase disease risk in African countries. FCDO figures from September showed that cuts under the current government hit the world's poorest nations hardest. Funding to the least-developed and low-income countries fell by 6.7%, or £118 million. The overall official development assistance budget dropped to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024, a decrease of £987 million.

The government has prioritised funding through multilateral bodies, including the International Development Association and Gavi, while maintaining humanitarian support. An FCDO spokesperson said that moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides stability for high-impact programmes. The multi-year allocations published in March 2026 are based on income estimates from the 2025 spending review.

The CGD urged ministers to add funds for international aid in this week's budget to avoid criticism for missing the target. Opposition parties, including the Conservatives and Reform UK, have pledged to cut aid from about £9 billion a year to £1 billion. That level would leave the UK unable to cover its existing contributions to the UN and World Bank.