Election Stalemate: Netanyahu Lacks Majority as Absentee Ballots Count

Israeli voters waited on Thursday for final counts that confirm a fragmented parliament. No group holds the 61 seats needed to control the 120-seat Knesset. The results leave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his rivals without a clear path to power.

Local media projected 53 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc and 48 for opposition parties. A further 19 seats went to Arab-led parties that also sought to unseat the prime minister. About 500,000 absentee ballots from military personnel, diplomats, and others are being counted. Officials expect these votes to finalize the numbers by Thursday evening without changing the overall balance.

The lack of a majority forces difficult coalition decisions. Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, the chief rival to Netanyahu, spoke of a government serving all citizens in his first public statement since Wednesday. He did not explicitly name the Arab-led parties in his remarks. However, he previously stated he is open to working with them to reach the necessary threshold.

The Joint List, an Arab-led party, expressed openness to cooperation late Wednesday. The party cited an unprecedented show of strength from Jewish voters willing to work against traditional racial divides. Small rallies formed overnight in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem in support of such a coalition. No Arab party has joined a governing cabinet since 2021, when a brief alliance collapsed.

Netanyahu’s Likud party accused Arab-led parties of stealing the election. The party asked the election committee to investigate the claim without providing specific evidence. The committee reported a low number of irregularities in the relatively calm vote. Netanyahu remains in charge while coalition talks proceed.

President Isaac Herzog will task an individual with forming the next government next week. Tradition favors the leader of the party with the most votes, though it is not a requirement. Herzog signaled on Wednesday he wants to avoid a new election early next year. Eisenkot has also voiced a preference to prevent a repeat vote.

A new election would raise questions about voter turnout. Many Israelis traveled from abroad to vote in this cycle, citing a desire to remove Netanyahu. It is unclear if tens of thousands of those citizens would return for another ballot. Arab citizens, who comprise 20% of the population, face similar uncertainty regarding their participation levels.

The political deadlock coincides with major policy disputes. The government must address military service exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox population. This issue has become contentious after three years of inconclusive wars killed members of many families. Netanyahu also faces corruption allegations and accusations that he delayed hostage deals in Gaza for political gain.

International pressure mounts following widespread criticism of Israel’s treatment of Palestinians and settler violence in the West Bank. In Nazareth, resident Brosli Elias described a cautious hope for change. He said he expects the government to bring rights to Arab citizens if the new coalition forms.

The threat of further strikes against Iran adds to the uncertainty. The Trump administration spoke of new attacks after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. Experts suggest Netanyahu could use a renewed all-out war to push for a unity government with him in charge. That move could delay a public inquiry into the security failures of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack that started the war in Gaza.