Likud Officials Split on Netanyahu's Odds With Vote Set for Tuesday

Nearly one-third of Israeli voters remain undecided as the nation prepares to cast ballots on Tuesday, a figure that has deepened uncertainty within the ruling Likud party.

According to a source inside Likud, members are divided on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's chances. Some officials express high confidence in victory, while others worry about a surge in turnout among voters opposing the prime minister.

The optimists rely on internal forecasts from Shlomo Filber, who manages the party's polling. The source described Filber as a decisive figure, stating, "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other." The source noted that some party members are very sure of themselves, while others are less so.

A primary source of concern is the activity of organizations and nonprofits directing funds to increase turnout in the rival camp. Party sources described a wide-ranging campaign that operated throughout the election period without direct party funding. This effort included social media campaigns, signage, field events, transportation for Arab voters, and initiatives to bring Israelis living abroad home to vote.

One Likud source characterized this activity as "the nonprofits affair on steroids." The source argued that these groups provide parties opposed to Netanyahu with a support network that exists outside standard party-financing rules. The sources did not provide documentation for the funding amounts cited or for the claim that the activity was illegal.

Likud has also criticized the Central Elections Committee, claiming it focused on enforcing limits on campaign videos and public resource use while paying insufficient attention to the work of these organizations. In preparation for Tuesday, Likud is organizing a large ground operation to prevent right-wing votes from drifting to smaller slates, despite restrictions on obtaining information from polling stations.

The party also failed in attempts to convince Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, leader of the People of Israel party, to leave the race. Talks involving Rabbi Eli Sadan did not succeed, and Sadan later issued a statement supporting Winter. Likud is courting backers of other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. Rabbi Abergel's Ahi party has already withdrawn from the race following discussions with Likud, during which legislation allowing the party to name a deputy minister was also raised.