Gas prices stay high despite election shifts

A gallon of diesel cost a record high of $6.52 in September, remaining about $2.50 more expensive than a year ago. The price of gasoline currently averages $4.12 per gallon, up by approximately one dollar from the same period last year. These figures come from data cited by AAA. The surge in fuel costs followed the war in Iran, which throttled the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that previously carried about one fifth of global oil supplies. Brent crude oil prices rose from about $70 in late February to nearly $95 today, after spending months near $110.

Democrats won wide margins in Congress, driven partly by voter dissatisfaction with high fuel prices. However, analysts say lower prices are not imminent. Members of the new Congress will not be sworn in until January. Until then, federal legislative power to influence oil prices remains limited because the global market dictates crude costs. President Trump attempted to lower costs before the election by loosening rules on dyed diesel and lifting sanctions on Russian diesel, but those moves did not significantly reduce pump prices.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters on Wednesday that Democrats intend to end the war and reduce living costs. He stated that relief is on the way. Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, wrote that a unified Democratic Congress can make military escalation more costly by attaching conditions to war spending and holding back confirmations of key officials. However, Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, noted that President Trump retains full discretionary authority over military strikes, blockades, and sanctions.

President Trump has sent mixed signals regarding the conflict. He warned Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a new military campaign after the midterms. The U.S. struck Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Nov. 2. Conversely, Vice President JD Vance posted on social media the day after the election, stating that the war was the reason the party lost. President Trump told The New York Times on election night that he understood voter unhappiness about gas prices.

Jaime Brito, executive director of refining and oil markets for Dow Jones Energy, said crude prices could drop $15 to $20 immediately if traders confirm the strait is reopening and military presence is pulling back. For gasoline and diesel prices to fall, ships must return to their former routes through the strait. This process could cause traffic jams. Brito estimated it could take three months after a ceasefire for fuel prices to reach prewar levels. León expects it to take six months for crude to stabilize, followed by another month or two for refined products. Both experts warned that hiccups could stretch the recovery timeline to a year.

The war in Ukraine also affects diesel prices. Russia supplies much of the world's diesel, and continued attacks on Russian refineries may keep diesel costs elevated longer than gasoline. U.S. refineries are running above 90% capacity, creating a risk if emergency maintenance is needed when new oil arrives. Freight and insurance costs for moving oil have also risen because ships must take longer routes to avoid the strait. Brito wrote that a definitive end to the conflict is necessary for prices to return to normal.