Midterm Outlook: Historical Trends Favor Democratic Gains

President Donald Trump faces record-low approval ratings and voter anger over rising prices as the midterm elections approach. His 2024 campaign promised to lower costs, but tariffs and the war with Iran have directly increased the price of goods and energy. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 38% of respondents said their economic situation has worsened, while only 15% reported improvement. Another 44% said their finances have remained mostly the same.

The economic divide is widening between wealthy investors and working families. Stock portfolios dominated by artificial intelligence companies have benefited the rich, while regular Americans struggle with inflation that exceeds wage growth. Interest rates have crept higher, making it harder for millions to buy homes or cars. This financial strain, combined with disapproval of hard-line immigration enforcement and cuts to Medicaid, is angering swing voters.

Historical data suggests the president's party is likely to lose seats. Since World War II, only twice has the president's party gained House seats in a midterm. When a president's approval rating is below 50%, as Trump's is, the average loss is 35 seats. If approval is above 50%, the average loss is 15 seats. Trump has acknowledged these difficult odds at campaign events, while Democrats have overperformed in special elections and the 2025 off-year contests.

Structural factors complicate the path to a Democratic majority. The Cook Political Report identifies about 30 fewer competitive districts this year than in 2018, when Democrats gained more than 40 House seats. Mid-decade redistricting has provided Republicans with an estimated eight-seat advantage. Trump pushed state legislatures to draw maps favoring the GOP, though Latino voting patterns in South Texas could alter these gains.

Democratic support is strong among specific groups, but the party faces internal challenges. Self-identified democratic socialists are highly engaged and disapprove of Trump's job performance. In the latest NPR poll, 44% of respondents said their vote was against Trump, while 21% voted for him. However, Democrats have struggled to unite a base that is often restive. The 2028 presidential cycle is already beginning, with candidates likely to announce early in the year to gain national attention.

Turnout will be the deciding factor. Trump is campaigning in red states to mobilize his base. Without strong Republican turnout, a small Democratic Senate gain could expand to six or seven seats. If Democrats do not win the House, it would represent a major polling error. Most states will call results on election night, but close Senate races may take days or weeks to decide.

Trump is preparing for potential disputes over the results. He has previously claimed fraud in elections that did not go his way. A quarter of Republicans in the latest poll said their candidate should not necessarily accept the results. This creates room for misinformation if races are close. Republican candidates have largely removed mentions of Trump from their advertisements, acknowledging that he is viewed favorably by his base but unfavorably by swing voters.