Agudat Yisrael and Bennett Face Off to Shape Israel's Next Coalition

Political assessments circulating in Jerusalem suggest that Agudat Yisrael, a three-member faction led by MK Yitzhak Goldknopf, may hold the balance of power in the next Israeli government. With less than a day remaining until voting begins, figures in the political establishment are reviewing scenarios where this small Haredi group backs an opposition-led coalition.

One emerging proposal involves Agudat Yisrael providing budgetary support to a government led by a change bloc member. This arrangement would require financial agreements between the parties. However, analysts note that such a deal does not guarantee a stable majority. The government might still need votes from Arab parties to pass legislation.

Talks between Agudat Yisrael and the opposition are not new. Maariv reported in August that the faction was exploring options for cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. These discussions occurred against a backdrop of internal tension within United Torah Judaism. Friction exists between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah regarding the Haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Rabbi Dov Lando recently sent a letter to the bloc expressing reservations about maintaining their commitment to Netanyahu, adding to the uncertainty.

Goldknopf faces a difficult path. His voter base is largely aligned with the Right. Assessments indicate that any move to support a change bloc government could push some of his supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This risk complicates the viability of a cross-aisle deal.

Attention is also turning to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. If neither major bloc secures the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority, Bennett could determine the shape of the next government. Political circles are discussing a scenario where Bennett joins a Netanyahu-led cabinet. Some view him as the only leader in the change bloc with the background to take such a step, given his history on the Right. The move would require him to shift his base of support, and the makeup of his current party would make the transition complex.

Analysts have also mentioned Avigdor Liberman, who previously served as defense minister in a Netanyahu government. However, current assessments hold that Liberman is unlikely to make a similar move now due to personal and political disagreements with the Prime Minister. For now, these remain scenarios and political assessments rather than formal agreements between the parties.