House GOP to pick minority leader amid 40-seat loss

House Republicans will gather in closed session on Tuesday to select a new minority leader for the 119th Congress. The party is seeking a replacement for former Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana following a midterm defeat that cost the GOP more than 40 seats. This loss allowed Democrats to reclaim the chamber majority.

The choice is limited to two members: current House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana and Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio. Jordan is a co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus. The vote will be conducted by secret ballot. The outcome will shape the party's strategy as it attempts to regroup from the election results.

Former acting Speaker Patrick McHenry noted the high stakes of the decision. "I think what develops here will become a larger, external conversation about the direction of the Republican Party," McHenry said. He served in an acting capacity during the leadership disputes of 2023.

Scalise, 61, has served as the No. 2 House Republican since 2023. He has held broader leadership roles for more than 10 years. In a letter to colleagues, Scalise described his approach as "conservative and consensus-driven." He stated his primary goal is to "win back the majority" and asked colleagues to hold him accountable to that mission.

Jordan, 62, has served on both the House Oversight and House Judiciary committees. He has pitched an aggressive style of leadership to his peers. In his campaign letter, Jordan wrote that "offense, not defense, wins elections." He criticized the previous leadership for operating without a clear plan against an "emboldened and energetic Democratic party."

This contest is a rematch of the 2023 race to succeed Kevin McCarthy. In that election, neither Scalise nor Jordan secured enough votes for the speakership, leading Republicans to choose Johnson. Leslie Shedd, a Republican strategist, described the current internal process as potentially resembling "family-on-family violence." She emphasized the need for a clear vision to lead the conference out of its current position.

John Leganski, a former aide to McCarthy, estimates that more than 70 percent of the incoming House GOP conference was elected after Donald Trump won his first term. Leganski noted that Trump could wield major influence over the direction of the conference, though the former president is currently staying out of the race. Trump endorsed Jordan in 2023.

Leganski said the size of the Democratic victory will limit the leverage of the eventual minority leader when the new Congress is seated in January. "I think whoever wins your job is to … number one, try to win back to the House," Leganski said. "And number two, make life as difficult for the Democrats as possible, largely by voting no."