Midterm Election Stakes: Seats, Governors, and Taxes

The United States votes on Tuesday to determine the balance of power in Congress, statehouses, and local governments. The election encompasses all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, and 36 governorships. Thousands of local positions are also on the ballot, alongside roughly 140 state referendums.

One of the most watched issues is California Proposition 40, which proposes a one-off 5 per cent wealth tax on the state’s billionaires. The vote follows a campaign heavily influenced by former President Barack Obama, who has toured the country to support Democratic candidates. Obama campaigned in Atlanta with Georgia Senate candidate Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor running for governor. Bottoms seeks to become the state’s first Black governor.

Washington Correspondent Keith Duggan noted the strategic challenge for Democrats in deploying Obama’s star power. He observed that while Obama generates fervent optimism among supporters, his presence risks eclipsing the candidates running for office. This dynamic is part of a wider trend where millennial Democratic stars, such as Pete Buttigieg and Abdul El-Sayed, are shaping their political identities in response to Obama’s legacy.

Polls suggest the Democrats are positioned to win a significant number of seats. Public anger over corruption and the cost of living may force Republicans to lose their majority in the House. In some scenarios, the Democrats could also take control of the Senate. However, analysts caution that previous polls have understated support for Donald Trump. Republicans benefit from gerrymandering of electoral districts and record spending in key states. Elon Musk has donated $276 million to political funding groups since July.

David McWilliams, writing a column on the election, describes the midterms as a referendum on Trump. He argues that inflation is the central issue, stating, “It’s inflation, stupid.” McWilliams warns that if Trump loses, US politics could become more divided, potentially triggering a second civil war within the Republican Party in a decade.

Liz Carolan connects the US campaign to global trends in anti-corruption voting, noting that Serbia’s opposition unseated leader Aleksandar Vucic last week. In Ukraine, Russian-controlled areas are imposing conscription and indoctrination on young men, driving some to risk escape. Meanwhile, in Ireland, Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan is in dispute with solicitors over criminal legal aid costs.