Underdog candidates pour personal funds and time into losing districts

Lisa Kinney spends her days walking through diners in Casper, Wyoming, seeking votes for a House seat that has elected only Republicans since the late 1970s. As a Democrat in the reddest state in the nation, she operates without a campaign office or a large staff. Her team consists of a small group of helpers and her husband, who drive across the state to talk to voters about preserving public lands and lowering health care costs.

Kinney says she runs to ensure Wyomingites hear a moderate voice. She describes her role as someone who can talk to both parties. During a recent campaign stop at Johnny J's diner, she encountered mixed reactions. Some patrons turned her away, while others questioned her ability to change the political direction. One voter, Joe Beck, told her he had already voted for her but warned that a tsunami of support for the incumbent was coming on Election Day.

Two thousand miles away in Connecticut, Republican George Austin faces a mirror image of that challenge. He is running in the second congressional district, a seat held by a Democrat who has won easily for 20 years. Democrats have won 45 consecutive U.S. House elections in the state since 2008. Austin, a home builder and former football coach, is spending a quarter of a million dollars of his own money on the race. He also handles scheduling and volunteer coordination, roles typically filled by paid staff.

Austin says he runs to show other working people that challenging the status quo is worthwhile. He notes that many voters in his district disengage when they learn he is a Republican, often citing their support for President Trump. He tries to shift conversations to areas of common ground, such as term limits and guardrails on artificial intelligence. He acknowledges the financial and emotional toll of the campaign, warning that candidates must be sure they are in it for the right reasons.

Eric Ostermeier, founder of the nonpartisan site Smart Politics, points to a trend of deep partisan entrenchment. He notes that 19 state delegations currently consist entirely of members from the same party, a high mark for the last 75 years. Ostermeier says gerrymandering plays a role, but voters also sort themselves geographically. He explains that it is difficult for state candidates to separate their local identity from the national party brand.

In Connecticut, 46 of the 187 state legislature seats are uncontested, a sign of how often incumbents win without a serious challenger. Kinney and Austin both say they view their efforts as important even if they lose. Kinney calls herself a realist who knows many voters will pick the Republican label, but she maintains that she can win. Austin says he does not believe his race is a lost cause and argues that fighting for such seats is essential for political balance.

The 2026 election will test whether these underdog campaigns can make inroads in solidly partisan districts. Kinney says she hopes to show voters that a moderate Democrat can represent Wyoming. Austin says he wants to restore some variety to his state's representation. Both candidates emphasize that the act of running itself strengthens their parties and offers a different perspective to voters who have grown accustomed to a single party's dominance.