Computer model favors Ohio State and Oklahoma in Week 10 college football slate

SportsLine's betting model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, identifies Ohio State and Oklahoma as top plays for the upcoming weekend. The model holds an 80-77 record on top-rated picks this season and projects three upsets in ranked matchups based on current polls.

Ohio State enters Saturday with a 7.5-point home favorite line against Oregon. The Buckeyes face the Ducks at a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff after a recent loss at USC. Freshman quarterback Luke Fahey returns to a home crowd where Ohio State has covered the spread in 80 percent of games since the start of 2025. The model projects the Buckeyes to win by double digits in more than 60 percent of simulations. Oregon, currently 1-3 against the spread this season, faces a defense that has allowed more passing touchdowns than any other Big Ten team except three others.

Oklahoma, listed as a six-point underdog at Florida, is projected to cover the spread in well over 50 percent of simulations. The Gators have lost three of their last four games by margins of 19 points or more. Aaron Philo returned to the starting role for Florida but was benched in the loss to Georgia after throwing two interceptions. His replacement, Tramell Jones, also committed two turnovers. The model cites Florida's status as the SEC leader in penalty yards as a factor preventing the Gators from gaining control. The Over is projected to hit in 59 percent of simulations for that contest.

The weekend slate features numerous high-profile SEC matchups. Alabama visits LSU as a 6.5-point underdog. Georgia receives 3.5 points at Ole Miss. Texas is a 2.5-point underdog at Missouri. In the Big 12, No. 1 Miami travels to face No. 11 Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are 7.5-point favorites seeking revenge for last season's loss. Miami will be without star wide receiver Malachi Toney, who is sidelined with an ankle injury.

Out west, BYU visits Utah in a rivalry game with a history spanning more than 100 years. The third-ranked Utes are favored by 4.5 points at home as they seek a fourth consecutive win over the Cougars.

Friday night action includes Virginia Tech at SMU (-6.5), Nebraska at Illinois (+4.5), and TCU at Arizona (-7). Saturday's card also features Cincinnati at Houston (-10.5), Kentucky at Tennessee (-6.5), Air Force at Army (-3), and Michigan State at Michigan (-14.5). All listed odds are subject to change prior to kickoff.