Vance Cites Israel Policy in GOP Defeat

U.S. Vice President JD Vance identified the relationship with Israel as a primary driver of his party's electoral loss. He posted a four-point plan for Republican recovery on social media the morning after the election, citing advice from an unnamed pollster he described as one of the smartest people in politics. The fourth point called for changing the U.S. relationship with Israel.

This statement arrived shortly after President Donald Trump suggested in an interview with Fox News that the United States might end approximately $4 billion in annual military aid to Israel. The White House has not clarified if this marks a policy shift or served as a final appeal to voters on Election Day. The remarks follow a period where bipartisan support for Israel in the U.S. eroded due to the wars in Gaza and Iran.

Democratic candidates won a large number of seats nationwide, including the swing state of Michigan. Abdul El-Sayed, who accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, defeated his Republican opponent in that state. El-Sayed and other critics argue that American aid has underwritten settlement expansion in the West Bank, undermining the prospect of a two-state solution.

Republicans on the right view Israel differently than in the past. Some accuse the nation of dragging the U.S. into a costly war with Iran, undermining the "America First" pledge. Trump, who previously recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital and legitimized settlements, joined Israel in two wars against Iran during his second term. Netanyahu has called Trump the best friend Israel has had in the White House.

An academic study from last year found that the U.S. provided $21.7 billion in aid to Israel since the start of the war in Gaza in October 2023. The Biden administration bypassed Congress to approve emergency weapons sales during that conflict, though it paused a shipment of 2,000-pound bombs. Trump has also approved billions in weapons sales. Cutting off aid would force Israel to finance its own purchases of American-made weapons, likely through borrowing or higher taxes.

Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said an aid cutoff would leave Israel scrambling. He described the move as a major unilateral change in the bilateral relationship. Former Israeli deputy national security adviser Chuck Freilich said Vance's call for change resonates with the isolationist wing of the Republican Party, including the base aligned with Tucker Carlson.

Netanyahu lost his parliamentary majority in last week's Israeli election. His main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, could lead a new government. Such a government might crack down on settler violence but would likely continue current regional policies. Netanyahu's spokesperson Doron Spielman said the prime minister has been working with Trump to transition from aid to a balanced partnership and mutual investment. Netanyahu has not commented on Trump's recent remarks.

Brad Lander, a newly elected Democratic representative from New York who was detained in the West Bank last month, criticized the opposition coalition's approach. He said American voters, both Jewish and non-Jewish, want to see respect for international law and human rights. He argued they do not want a tour to repair relations but rather evidence of policy change.